Why Presidential Polls Keep Getting It Wrong - Jerry Johnson

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Manage episode 276513864 series 2818835
By Tim Yeadon and Clyde Golden. Discovered by Player FM and our community — copyright is owned by the publisher, not Player FM, and audio is streamed directly from their servers. Hit the Subscribe button to track updates in Player FM, or paste the feed URL into other podcast apps.

Jerry Johnson is the owner and principal consultant at Cascade Strategies, a market consulting and strategic planning firm based in Bellevue.

Tim and Jerry talk about how Cascade Strategies applied advanced models, AI models, and linear models to the data they received leading up to the 2016 election. Jerry also spoke about how by using latent effects modeling they were able to gage long-term voter sentiment more accurately than most polls, and were actually able to predict Trump’s win of the 2016 election, a result which they publicized in October of 2016. Beyond voter sentiment, Tim and Jerry covered biometric analysis as a research tool, the specifics of latent effects modeling (aka. how to get people to remember you fondly), AI and machine learning, how creatives can use AI to their advantage instead of being made redundant by it, and how to survive the current economic downturn.

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Clyde Golden is a creative agency in Seattle specializing in research, strategy, and content creation (earnestly delivered in that order) via Customer Journey programs.

23 episodes