One Person's Falling Knife. Shlomo In Thirty podcast

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I love this quote from the Oracle of Omaha. Amazon found that giving things away for free isn’t a business and Shopify capitalized on wannabe-ism. Facebook’s a better business than either of these but they’re paying $3Bil to terminate leases chasing a fad. So you take a bet but can’t stomach the wait? Hey Zuck, are we jumping the gun while the jury is still out on the future of work?…

Shlomo in Thirty

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Prep! 0:32

3 years ago0:32

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I’ve helped many borrowers. Hard times are here. Get your house in order. Go through your loan docs. What you see may surprise you AND save you lots of heartache. Uninformed common sense reactions will kill you. Lenders will pursue personal guarantees - even though your loan is non-recourse. It’s not about winning. If you’re in a PG case with a lender, financing other assets will be almost impossible. In commercial real estate, if you can't finance deals, you are up a creek.…

Shlomo in Thirty

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Trade of a Lifetime - (Overtime) 2:09

3 years ago2:09

2:09

Many if not most employers see value in the office space, but not the old model of sardine canning workers into the smallest cookie cutter space from 9-5 every day. Beyond that however, nobody seems to know, or at least be willing to have their balance sheets take a bet as to what the future of office actually looks like. Landlord’s with the misfortune of negotiating leases during this time of flux are getting allot of ask but being offered very little value in return and the sustained physics of such an arrangement — it’s impossible because landlords have expenses, tenant improvement costs and a mortgage to pay. A short term lease with low rent may be a necessary defensive move, but not many owners have the ability to fund it. Companies like JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Apple - they’ve all mandated a return to office but they all have heavy bets in the space and lots of leverage with their employees. In talking with friends and colleagues such the amazing Ken Ashley and the always ‘cut through the cluttered data’ Neely Tamminga, it’s apparent to me that the question isn’t as much the future of office as its reintegration. We need a bridge to tomorrow. One would think that if technology has made the home a place from where you can work, then the technologically equipped office should be that much more efficient and effective in its own right. Solving this problem by just kicking the can is going to invite carnage. You need a proactive approach and that’s the only way that landlords will save their properties from a death spiral. How do we get landlords to provide experiential, useful space at a low cost? How do we provide tenants the optionality they need while extracting a commitment to a building? How do we train middle managers to guide employees into effective hybrid work efforts, so that return to office isn’t more of what you were anyways doing at home or just a day of social interaction that hurts productivity. Sam Zell made the ultimate office trade years ago — and it paid off in spades! Finding the right formula this time around will result in similarly massive returns.…

Shlomo in Thirty

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Lagging Predictors (w/Jessica Mauser) 0:30

3 years ago0:30

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Jessica: Why are commercial real estate market reports wrong? Shlomo: How do investors use it? I think investors, they call you up, they say, oh, where do you think interest rates are going? Where do you think this, where do you think that? Who knows what's going? Look at what's going on in the moment, right? When you look at a commercial real estate report for the second quarter of this past year, you're a quarter late. So you need to actually see what's going on right now in your market. The only way to do that is to be part of it. Then the past educates you and then you predict the future, and good luck predicting the future because if you know the future. I want that secret. I'll buy some of that stock.…

Shlomo in Thirty

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Twilight Zone (w/Jessica Mauser) 0:33

3 years ago0:33

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Shlomo: It's a crazy thing. Retail properties, they're not getting refinanced and retailers are pulling back. Jessica: Yet landlords are touting the highest occupancy rates they've had in a decade, and rents are astounding, at least in my market. Shlomo: I don't know. As I see potential acquisitions, I see values in the Billions even, but then Macerich can't refinance $537 per square foot loan on Santa Monica Place. Jessica: We're in the Twilight Zone, Shlomo. That's it. The reality has nothing to do with it. Once these reports catch up to what's going on in the market, it's going to be a different story.…

Shlomo in Thirty

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Buying Low 0:31

3 years ago0:31

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They say “Buy Low” but using what metric? If you underwrite an office property using yesterday's rents and TI requirements, yeah, you may be buying low. But if you consider that the calculus of office space has changed, and in reality, we don’t know where it’s going to settle, is buying comparatively low, enough? And it’s not limited solely to office - we’re in a state of technological flux. It may seem that you’re getting a steal of a deal “with leases in place” but consider that you’re making a 5-10 year investment and the next buyer, well, they’ll have to pay you more than you paid for the property. #creinvent #crepodcast #cre #shomointhirty #buylow #TI #officespace #investment #therightinvestment #cretech #cretips…

Shlomo in Thirty

1
Five Stages 0:29

3 years ago0:29

0:29

#1 Denial: The Lender doesn’t want the property! Irrelevant - they will exercise their remedies. #2 Anger: They’re not dealing in good faith! They funded. Now they’re in collections mode. #3 Bargaining: OK, Let do a deal. You didnt influence the lender. You fought. Times up. #4 Depression: The Lender is out to get me. No. You didn’t give a reason for a borrower with no equity to guide a falling knife. #5 Acceptance: OK, Who can help me? Now it’s too late- You should have aske this question 90 days before the problems start. #CREINVENT #distressedassets #distresseddebt #crefinance #realestate #cmbs…

Shlomo in Thirty

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Ten Days 0:30

3 years ago0:30

0:30

There are times to decide whether or not to cover the payment or expense shortfall on your loan. 10 days prior to the payment being due, is not one of them. Before you can even consider this decision… Do you have a good workable proforma? Do you have recourse exposure? Do you know whether you're going to have to come out of pocket to prevent recourse exposure? Do you even want the property, and if so at what price? Then, depending on your decision, do you understand the process on the lenders' side? What are the foreclosure procedures in the property’s jurisdiction? Are you giving yourself sufficient time or will the process get out ahead of you? #creinvent #crepodcast #cre #shomointhirty #loantips #proforma #forclosuretips #commercialrealestate #mortgage…

Shlomo in Thirty

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Frozen. 0:30

3 years ago0:30

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Distress is here, make no mistake, but dealmaking is still a bit away. Lender's workout teams are staffing up, and owners are seeing the first cracks but we’re in the frozen stage. Prices have yet to fully adjust, lenders do not have clarity and therefore financing is generally either unavailable or you're going to get re-traded. Everyone’s taking a wait-and-see approach, fully expecting things to get worse. However, there is no desire to jump the gun. For borrowers of CMBS loans where the Lender is required to start enforcement action, buying time is key to working out your loan. #frozen #cmbsloans #crepodcast #cre #creinvent #ecoconscious #economyshift…

Shlomo in Thirty

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Mall Margins. 0:31

3 years ago0:31

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Anytime Amazon makes a move the news is abuzz, and this time it's no different with a quick delivery service from retailers. Here's the business model. Retailer’s pay retail rent to your landlord then use a space partially as a warehouse to deliver from it quick #ecommerce orders delivered by Amazon. Somebody’s gotta eat the cost! Did you ever think the pizza delivery guy was actually a profit center? Here's the bottom line. Mall owners and real estate owners you've known these tenants forever. You could have provided this service but now Amazon is coming in and nibbling at your margins from all sides. #retail #commercialbroker #business #amazon #warehouse #commercialleasing #amazonfresh #profitcenter #creinvent…

Shlomo in Thirty

1
Amazon Retail. 0:31

3 years ago0:31

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Amazon Retail has yet to spring a profit and its side businesses are keeping it afloat. In 2021 if not for the advertising business they would’ve lost over $20 billion. Before you tell me I can’t pick apart the businesses, bear in mind that the advertising business cannibalizes Jeff Bezos customer first focus for the sake of profits which he didn’t want to be judged by. Whole Foods seems to be stagnant, and Amazon Fresh early reviews are abysmal both on the experience and performance side. Why don’t they just invest it and juice profits? #amazonretail #cre #20billion #jeffbezos #creinvent #advertisingbudget #wholefoods #amazonfresh…

Shlomo in Thirty

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It's Autumn. 0:29

3 years ago0:29

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We see the news about rates rising and distress is increasing — funds are being raised, and the war drums are certainly rattling. Distress buying opportunities are not yet here and Lenders are not yet taking major losses. Here are three indications that winter is coming. 1. Deals that supposedly traded are back on the market 2. Hard money lenders are very busy 3. Lenders are getting very slow on draw requests If you are seeing the leaves changing in your market, please comment below #winteriscoming #cre #funduncertainty #creinvent #lenders #recession #fund…

Shlomo in Thirty

1
One Person's Falling Knife. 0:30

3 years ago0:30

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Fortunes are made in a downturn but more than capital requires expertise to get to the right assets at the right price. It's called a downturn for reason -- resolution will not be overnight, it'll take some time. It's possible to buy cheap in a downturn because it doesn't look cheap to the rest of the world. To them, it's a falling knife. So you must ask yourself three questions: 1. Do I have the tools and relationships to find the right deals? 2. Do I have the ability to restructure complex messes? 3. Do I have the patient and knowledgeable funding sources to execute my strategy? #capitalmarkets #cre #downtown #creinvent #funding #strategyexecution #strategyconsulting…

Shlomo in Thirty

1
Office Paralysis. 0:28

3 years ago0:28

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How does one resolve a problem they can't even identify? Work from home is here to stay and the office is necessary. We don't know, however, the level of blending. Sure the labor market is loosening and yes, companies are pushing employees to come back to the office, but to even know what an accepted buildout looks like? And even if we did, would they give the landlord enough term to amortize those high construction costs across? Until we identify the problem we will see continued financial stress and collapse of downtowns. #workfromhome #backtooffice #office #downtown #cre #crepodcast #creinvent…

Shlomo in Thirty

1
The Herd. 0:32

3 years ago0:32