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The Optimistic Curmudgeon

OptimisticCurmudgeon2021

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The Optimistic Curmudgeon is an interview podcast where Josh Herring interviews expert guests whose credentials and experience help listeners understand truth in a confusing world. We discuss issues under seven areas: economics, politics, education, philosophy, business, virtue, and leadership! May the best ideas win.
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Your home for the best Uplifting and Vocal Trance presented by a collection of Australia's best Trance DJs. Many of the sets have been recorded live. Some have been pre-recorded due to Covid travel restrictions (our DJs are scattered along the east coast). New sets released twice weekly
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AI Boom You may have missed the AI boom in NVIDIA, but for patient longer-term investors there could be a good investment opportunity in energy going forward. As more companies begin to use AI, the demand for energy will increase. Keep in mind that this is on top of expected growth in the electric vehicle market and if it continues on in future yea…
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John Wilsey discusses the nature of religious conservatism, its place in the American tradition, and why conservatives are the best disposed group in America today to defend everyone's religious liberty. He explains the nature of patriotism, defending the idea of being American, and roots his arguments in Burkean conservatism. With callbacks to epi…
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PPI Initially the Producer Price Index (PPI) looked problematic as it increased 0.5%, which easily topped the estimate of 0.3%. Looking further into the report though, the March reading was revised from an initially reported 0.2% gain to a decline of 0.1%, which more than accounted for this month’s beat. Looking on a year-over-year basis, PPI rose …
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In this episode, hosts Drs. Jason Silverman and Temara Hajjat talk to Drs. Michael Narkewicz and Zachary Sellers about screening, evaluation and management of children with cystic fibrosis with hepatobiliary involvement and advanced CF liver disease. We review the new consensus recommendations paper published in the May issue of Hepatology (open ac…
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Cash & Money Markets are not Long-Term Investments With many companies in the stock market more expensive than we’d like to see, we have been sitting on more cash in a money market than we normally would. While the 5% or so in interest is nice for the time being, we are using this as a temporary parking place until we find a good long-term investme…
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Joe Rigney discusses his new book, Leadership and Emotional Sabotage: Resisting the Anxiety That Will Wreck Your Family, Destroy Your Church, and Ruin the World, and the need for men in particular to rediscover their authority. Rigney argues that rightly used authority is a blessing to those under it and in the absence of that authority chaos reign…
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Andrew Zwerneman discusses the nature of history, how it should be taught, and its role in a classical education. History is a primary method of shaping the moral imagination, and Zwerneman describes the pivotal role of the classical educator in forming students to cultivate historical consciousness. Find all of Andrew resources and more at Cana Ac…
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Labor Market payrolls Nonfarm payrolls increased by 175,000 in the month of April. While this was well below the estimate of 240,000, this may actually be a big positive. Having that type of growth still shows the labor market is on good footing, but to combat the Fed’s inflation concerns it’s nice to see a labor market that is not too hot. Previou…
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In this episode, hosts Drs. Peter Lu and Temara Hajjat talk to Dr. Jason Silverman about how social media can be used in pediatric gastroenterology for patient care, research, medical education, and professional development. Dr. Silverman is an Associate Professor in the Division of Pediatric Gastroenterology and Nutrition at Stollery Children's Ho…
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Rob Thornett, a classical educator with Great Hearts Academies, explains how classical methods and approaches help students discover the good that education can give them. Rob is a global traveler, and has taught in various international settings. This conversational episode is based on Rob’s article in Quillette: https://quillette.com/2024/02/09/t…
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GDP First quarter GDP was a large disappointment as it grew at an annualized pace of 1.6%, substantially below the estimate of 2.4%. I will say, considering there is a lot of data to collect the first reading can be subject to major revisions. As a recent example, in 2023 Q1 GDP had an initial reading which showed an increase of 1.1%, but it was la…
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Scott Yenor describes more than 20 woke pieces of legislation passed in California in recent years and the terrible effects they have on California education. Dr. Yenor explains what’s really going in some key educational buzzwords: culturally responsive teaching, social emotional learning, action civics, critical social justice, and restorative ju…
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Retail Sales People may be complaining about higher interest rates, but it does not appear to be slowing down the consumer. Retail sales climbed 0.7% in the month of March, which is easily topped the estimate of 0.3%. Compared to last year, sales were up an impressive 4.0%. Areas of strength continued to be nonstore retailers, which were up 11.3% c…
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In this episode, hosts Drs. Peter Lu and Jennifer Lee talk to Dr. Michael Wilsey about the evaluation and management of esophageal strictures in children, including congenital strictures and those arising from eosinophilic esophagitis and caustic ingestions. Dr. Wilsey is an advanced endoscopist at Johns Hopkins All Children's Hospital in St. Peter…
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March CPI The March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report spooked investors and sent the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in June to around 20%, which was a sharp drop from the greater than 50% chance that was priced in before the data was released. The concern came as headline CPI was 3.5% over the last 12 months, which topped the estimate of 3.4% and cor…
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Paul Krause, editor in chief of Voegelin View, joins Josh for this season's Great Books discussion on Jonathan Swift's Gulliver's Travels. Krause situates Swift in his moment in time, and explains the depths of satirical insight Swift applies to questions of human nature. What do the Houyhnhnm, Yahoos, Brobdingnagians, Lilliputians, Laputans, and c…
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March Jobs Report I must say, I was very surprised by the strength in the March Jobs Report. Nonfarm payrolls increased 303,000 in the month, which easily topped the estimate of 200,000. Unlike prior reports, there wasn’t a major change to the previous months as February saw a negative revision of just 5,000 and January’s revision brought the total…
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Ferenc Horcher discusses the life, scholarship, and humanity of Sir Roger Scruton. Author of Art and Politics in Roger Scruton’s Conservative Philosophy, Horcher explains the connections between Scruton's life and the development of his philosophy. Along the way, Horcher explains Scruton's aesthetic, conservatism, and cultivation of the finer thing…
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In this episode, Temara Hajjat and Jenn Lee interview Dr. Matthew Giefer and Dr. Brad Pasternak. Drs. Giefer and Pasternak share their experience advocating for the approval of medications for their patients. The discussion also covers the challenges involved in medication approval, how to approach your local and state representatives, and lobbying…
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Electric Vehicle Sales Electric vehicle sales have really not kept up with expectations and I’m concerned for the smaller companies such as Lucid, Fisker and Rivian, which besides Tesla may be the only other exclusive electric vehicle company that may survive. Digging deeper into the numbers for Lucid, since 2021 they’ve only built 10,495 cars and …
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Lawsuits Against Apple On Thursday, March 21st, the Department of Justice (DOJ) filed an anti-trust lawsuit along with 16 states against Apple. The DOJ claims Apple’s iPhone ecosystem is a monopoly that drove its “astronomical valuation” at the expense of consumers, developers and rival phone makers. The lawsuit claims that Apple’s anti-competitive…
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In this episode, hosts Drs. Temara Hajjat and Jason Silverman talk to Dr. Ruben Quiros-Tejeira about multivisceral transplantation in children, covering indications, complications and the importance of multidisciplinary team care in this population. Dr. Quiros-Tejeira is Chief of the Division of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition, a Profess…
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Between Elon Musk's Neuralink, Amazon's Upload, and the promises of both AI programs like Chat GPT and Google Gemini and investments into virtual reality (Meta), the potential for exchanging the material world for some other kind of existence has never been more clear. But can an alternate reality lead to happiness? Dr. Peter Forrest, Dean of Human…
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CPI The Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in a little bit hotter than expected as the headline number for February showed an annual increase of 3.2% versus on expectation of 3.1% and the core CPI showed an annual increase of 3.8% versus an expectation of 3.7%. While it was not much progress, there was still a decline from last month’s core CPI readin…
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Labor Market While the headline number of 275k jobs created easily topped the estimate of 198k and sparked concerns the labor market remained too hot, the details of the report showed a much softer labor market. To begin, the prior two months saw a downward revision of 167k jobs, which more than offsets the beat we saw in the month of February. Als…
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In this episode, hosts Drs. Peter Lu and Jason Silverman talk to Dr. Samuel Nurko about using neuromodulator medications like tricyclic antidepressants and selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) for children with functional abdominal pain disorders, now known as pain-predominant disorders of gut-brain interaction (DGBIs). We discuss the ra…
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Katy Faust and Stacy Manning discuss the realities of raising conservative kids in a woke city. They offer realistic advice and solid analysis with a gentleness of spirit that will resonate with all parents. The book is Raising Conservative Kids in a Woke City - get your copy today!By OptimisticCurmudgeon2021
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401k Loans It was nice to see that retirement assets saw a nice increase in 2023. According to Fidelity, the average 401k was up 14% from a year earlier to $118,600 and the average IRA was up 12% to $116,600. While it is good to see this progress, balances are still short of the year end 2021 levels when the average 401k reached $136k and the avera…
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Commercial Real Estate We hear that commercial real estate properties are having problems, but how bad are those problems? After the 2008/2009 financial crisis, by the second quarter of 2010 commercial property had a record $194.8 billion properties in distress. Compare that to the end of 2023, when commercial properties in distress totaled $86 bil…
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In this episode, hosts Drs. Peter Lu and Jennifer Lee talk to Dr. Praveen Goday about evaluating and treating the child who is a picky eater or who has developed a pediatric feeding disorder. Dr. Goday is Professor of Pediatrics at The Ohio State University College of Medicine and Director of the Nutrition and Feeding Programs at Nationwide Childre…
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AI Outlook So Far Microsoft spent about $7 million per 30 second ad for the Super Bowl promoting their Copilot AI service. Some results are not coming in so good for Copilot with some testers after using the software for more than six months said it was useful but doesn’t live up to its price. Another survey adopter said the initial excitement wear…
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CPI One of the main reasons I continue to believe the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will continue to decelerate this year is I don’t believe there will be as much pressure from the shelter index. In December, the median U.S. asking rent price fell 0.8% from the prior year to $1,964. According to Redfin, this marked the third consecutive monthly declin…
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In the this episode, hosts Drs. Temara Hajjat and Peter Lu talk to Dr. Neha Santucci, an Associate Professor of Pediatrics and the Director of the Disorders of Gut-Brain Interaction Program at Cincinnati Children's. They discuss how to identify and manage functional abdominal pain in children with pre-existing organic GI disorders. Learning Objecti…
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Employment Situation The numbers for nonfarm payrolls blew away expectations as they expanded by 353,000 in the month of January. This easily topped the estimate for 185,000. Job growth was widespread as it grew in every major category except for mining and logging which saw a decline of 6k in the month. Two areas that remained extremely strong wer…
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Josh delivered this talk at the 2023 Thales Press Classical Summit; it is a distillation of his dissertation which explores C.S. Lewis's theory of gender. Lewis believed that gender is a fundamental real relationship the governs reality; he wrote about this in both nonfiction and his fiction, and his theory prophetically solves the transgender mala…
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GDP Report I would say the GDP report was an extremely strong indicator that the economy is progressing in the right direction. While the growth number in Q4 of 3.3% was impressive compared to the estimate for a 2% gain, I believe the inflation numbers were even more important. The PCE price index increased just 1.7% in the fourth quarter and when …
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In the this episode, hosts Drs. Temara Hajjat and Jenn Lee talk to Dr. Lisa McMahon, Chair of Surgery at Phoenix Children's, and Dr. Michael Rosen, Director of the Stanford Medicine Children's Health Center for IBD and Celiac Disease. They discuss managing and counseling a pediatric patient with ulcerative colitis and their family who may need cole…
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Banks and the Economy Each quarter we get very excited to see what the major banks have to say about the consumer and the economy. Last Friday, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Bank of America and Citigroup all reported earnings. The overall comments were the consumer is still strong. The CEO of Wells Fargo said average deposit balances per customer remain a…
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Inflation Numbers While the headline inflation numbers were above estimates, I wouldn’t say there were really any surprises in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Headline CPI rose 3.4% vs the estimate of 3.2% and core CPI rose 3.9% vs the estimate of 3.8%. Although it was slightly higher than anticipated, progress is still being made on the inf…
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Karen Elliott, Executive Director of The Rafiki Foundation, shares about her organization's work in developing and practicing classical education in 10 different African countries. Karen shares about her background, why she loves classical education, and the unique possibility classical education offers to help African education leaders elevate the…
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In the first episode of 2024, hosts Drs. Temara Hajjat and Jason Silverman talk to Dr. William Balistreri about some of the new developments in the hepatology field over the past year. This episode is eligible for CME credit! Once you have listened to the episode, click this link to claim your credit. Credit is available to NASPGHAN members (if you…
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Jobs Report There was initial concern that the jobs report was too strong and could point to inflationary concerns. After digging into the report, I believe it is still in line with our belief that the economy is in a good enough spot to have a soft landing and avoid further inflationary pressures. The initial concern stemmed from the fact that hea…
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Santa Claus Rally If you felt disappointed in your gifts from Santa this year, there is still hope he brings your investments some nice returns. We are currently in the middle of the Santa Claus rally which is the period of time that includes the last five trading days of the current year and the first two trading days of the new year. Historically…
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CPI The Consumer Price Index (CPI) did not show us much new news and I believe it will be enough for the Fed to keep rates steady and put an end to their hiking cycle. The headline number showed just a 3.1% increase compared to last year and the core CPI, which excludes food and energy showed an increase of 4%. The headline number saw a nice benefi…
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In another special JPGN episode, hosts Drs. Jennifer Lee and Jason Silverman talk to Dr. Elizabeth Berg about a topic that has become a huge part of medical practice over the past few years – telemedicine. This is covered in the recent NASPGHAN position paper: North American Society for Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology, and Nutrition Position…
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Employment While the headline numbers for the jobs report showed results that beat expectations, when you look closely at the report it shows a softening labor market which is exactly what the Fed wants to see. Nonfarm payrolls in the month of November showed a gain of 199,000 which topped the estimate of 190,000 and the unemployment rate fell to 3…
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Ben Crenshaw (PhD Cand., Hillsdale College) explains his view of Christian nationalism, the importance of Christian foundations for the American political order, and why this debate matters for accurate American historical scholarship. Ben is building on his paper presented at the 2023 ISI American Politics and Government. With shout outs to Stephe…
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Annual Home Sales The higher interest rates have put a damper on home sales, which is no surprise. The seasonally adjusted annual sales came in at 3.8 million for October. Not only is that a decline of 4.1% from September, it is the lowest seasonally adjusted annual home sales since August 2010 which was over 13 years ago. As interest rates pull ba…
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In this episode, hosts Drs. Peter Lu and Jennifer Lee talk to Dr. Muhammad Khan about the cutting edge of pediatric endoscopy. We discuss his career path, use of peroral endoscopic myotomy (POEM) for children with achalasia and gastroparesis, advances in bariatric endoscopy that may be coming our way, and finally what he sees in the future of pedia…
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