Cash & Money Markets are not Long-Term Investments With many companies in the stock market more expensive than we’d like to see, we have been sitting on more cash in a money market than we normally would. While the 5% or so in interest is nice for the time being, we are using this as a temporary parking place until we find a good long-term investme…

In this episode, hosts Drs. Peter Lu and Jennifer Lee talk to Dr. Michael Wilsey about the evaluation and management of esophageal strictures in children, including congenital strictures and those arising from eosinophilic esophagitis and caustic ingestions. Dr. Wilsey is an advanced endoscopist at Johns Hopkins All Children's Hospital in St. Peter…

Labor Market payrolls Nonfarm payrolls increased by 175,000 in the month of April. While this was well below the estimate of 240,000, this may actually be a big positive. Having that type of growth still shows the labor market is on good footing, but to combat the Fed’s inflation concerns it’s nice to see a labor market that is not too hot. Previou…

In this episode, hosts Drs. Peter Lu and Temara Hajjat talk to Dr. Jason Silverman about how social media can be used in pediatric gastroenterology for patient care, research, medical education, and professional development. Dr. Silverman is an Associate Professor in the Division of Pediatric Gastroenterology and Nutrition at Stollery Children's Ho…

GDP First quarter GDP was a large disappointment as it grew at an annualized pace of 1.6%, substantially below the estimate of 2.4%. I will say, considering there is a lot of data to collect the first reading can be subject to major revisions. As a recent example, in 2023 Q1 GDP had an initial reading which showed an increase of 1.1%, but it was la…

Retail Sales People may be complaining about higher interest rates, but it does not appear to be slowing down the consumer. Retail sales climbed 0.7% in the month of March, which is easily topped the estimate of 0.3%. Compared to last year, sales were up an impressive 4.0%. Areas of strength continued to be nonstore retailers, which were up 11.3% c…

March CPI The March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report spooked investors and sent the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in June to around 20%, which was a sharp drop from the greater than 50% chance that was priced in before the data was released. The concern came as headline CPI was 3.5% over the last 12 months, which topped the estimate of 3.4% and cor…

March Jobs Report I must say, I was very surprised by the strength in the March Jobs Report. Nonfarm payrolls increased 303,000 in the month, which easily topped the estimate of 200,000. Unlike prior reports, there wasn’t a major change to the previous months as February saw a negative revision of just 5,000 and January’s revision brought the total…

In this episode, Temara Hajjat and Jenn Lee interview Dr. Matthew Giefer and Dr. Brad Pasternak. Drs. Giefer and Pasternak share their experience advocating for the approval of medications for their patients. The discussion also covers the challenges involved in medication approval, how to approach your local and state representatives, and lobbying…

Electric Vehicle Sales Electric vehicle sales have really not kept up with expectations and I’m concerned for the smaller companies such as Lucid, Fisker and Rivian, which besides Tesla may be the only other exclusive electric vehicle company that may survive. Digging deeper into the numbers for Lucid, since 2021 they’ve only built 10,495 cars and …

Lawsuits Against Apple On Thursday, March 21st, the Department of Justice (DOJ) filed an anti-trust lawsuit along with 16 states against Apple. The DOJ claims Apple’s iPhone ecosystem is a monopoly that drove its “astronomical valuation” at the expense of consumers, developers and rival phone makers. The lawsuit claims that Apple’s anti-competitive…

In this episode, hosts Drs. Temara Hajjat and Jason Silverman talk to Dr. Ruben Quiros-Tejeira about multivisceral transplantation in children, covering indications, complications and the importance of multidisciplinary team care in this population. Dr. Quiros-Tejeira is Chief of the Division of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition, a Profess…

CPI The Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in a little bit hotter than expected as the headline number for February showed an annual increase of 3.2% versus on expectation of 3.1% and the core CPI showed an annual increase of 3.8% versus an expectation of 3.7%. While it was not much progress, there was still a decline from last month’s core CPI readin…

Labor Market While the headline number of 275k jobs created easily topped the estimate of 198k and sparked concerns the labor market remained too hot, the details of the report showed a much softer labor market. To begin, the prior two months saw a downward revision of 167k jobs, which more than offsets the beat we saw in the month of February. Als…

In this episode, hosts Drs. Peter Lu and Jason Silverman talk to Dr. Samuel Nurko about using neuromodulator medications like tricyclic antidepressants and selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) for children with functional abdominal pain disorders, now known as pain-predominant disorders of gut-brain interaction (DGBIs). We discuss the ra…

401k Loans It was nice to see that retirement assets saw a nice increase in 2023. According to Fidelity, the average 401k was up 14% from a year earlier to $118,600 and the average IRA was up 12% to $116,600. While it is good to see this progress, balances are still short of the year end 2021 levels when the average 401k reached $136k and the avera…

Commercial Real Estate We hear that commercial real estate properties are having problems, but how bad are those problems? After the 2008/2009 financial crisis, by the second quarter of 2010 commercial property had a record $194.8 billion properties in distress. Compare that to the end of 2023, when commercial properties in distress totaled $86 bil…

In this episode, hosts Drs. Peter Lu and Jennifer Lee talk to Dr. Praveen Goday about evaluating and treating the child who is a picky eater or who has developed a pediatric feeding disorder. Dr. Goday is Professor of Pediatrics at The Ohio State University College of Medicine and Director of the Nutrition and Feeding Programs at Nationwide Childre…

AI Outlook So Far Microsoft spent about $7 million per 30 second ad for the Super Bowl promoting their Copilot AI service. Some results are not coming in so good for Copilot with some testers after using the software for more than six months said it was useful but doesn’t live up to its price. Another survey adopter said the initial excitement wear…

CPI One of the main reasons I continue to believe the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will continue to decelerate this year is I don’t believe there will be as much pressure from the shelter index. In December, the median U.S. asking rent price fell 0.8% from the prior year to $1,964. According to Redfin, this marked the third consecutive monthly declin…

In the this episode, hosts Drs. Temara Hajjat and Peter Lu talk to Dr. Neha Santucci, an Associate Professor of Pediatrics and the Director of the Disorders of Gut-Brain Interaction Program at Cincinnati Children's. They discuss how to identify and manage functional abdominal pain in children with pre-existing organic GI disorders. Learning Objecti…

Employment Situation The numbers for nonfarm payrolls blew away expectations as they expanded by 353,000 in the month of January. This easily topped the estimate for 185,000. Job growth was widespread as it grew in every major category except for mining and logging which saw a decline of 6k in the month. Two areas that remained extremely strong wer…

GDP Report I would say the GDP report was an extremely strong indicator that the economy is progressing in the right direction. While the growth number in Q4 of 3.3% was impressive compared to the estimate for a 2% gain, I believe the inflation numbers were even more important. The PCE price index increased just 1.7% in the fourth quarter and when …

In the this episode, hosts Drs. Temara Hajjat and Jenn Lee talk to Dr. Lisa McMahon, Chair of Surgery at Phoenix Children's, and Dr. Michael Rosen, Director of the Stanford Medicine Children's Health Center for IBD and Celiac Disease. They discuss managing and counseling a pediatric patient with ulcerative colitis and their family who may need cole…

Banks and the Economy Each quarter we get very excited to see what the major banks have to say about the consumer and the economy. Last Friday, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Bank of America and Citigroup all reported earnings. The overall comments were the consumer is still strong. The CEO of Wells Fargo said average deposit balances per customer remain a…

Inflation Numbers While the headline inflation numbers were above estimates, I wouldn’t say there were really any surprises in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Headline CPI rose 3.4% vs the estimate of 3.2% and core CPI rose 3.9% vs the estimate of 3.8%. Although it was slightly higher than anticipated, progress is still being made on the inf…

In the first episode of 2024, hosts Drs. Temara Hajjat and Jason Silverman talk to Dr. William Balistreri about some of the new developments in the hepatology field over the past year. This episode is eligible for CME credit! Once you have listened to the episode, click this link to claim your credit. Credit is available to NASPGHAN members (if you…

Jobs Report There was initial concern that the jobs report was too strong and could point to inflationary concerns. After digging into the report, I believe it is still in line with our belief that the economy is in a good enough spot to have a soft landing and avoid further inflationary pressures. The initial concern stemmed from the fact that hea…

Santa Claus Rally If you felt disappointed in your gifts from Santa this year, there is still hope he brings your investments some nice returns. We are currently in the middle of the Santa Claus rally which is the period of time that includes the last five trading days of the current year and the first two trading days of the new year. Historically…

CPI The Consumer Price Index (CPI) did not show us much new news and I believe it will be enough for the Fed to keep rates steady and put an end to their hiking cycle. The headline number showed just a 3.1% increase compared to last year and the core CPI, which excludes food and energy showed an increase of 4%. The headline number saw a nice benefi…

In another special JPGN episode, hosts Drs. Jennifer Lee and Jason Silverman talk to Dr. Elizabeth Berg about a topic that has become a huge part of medical practice over the past few years – telemedicine. This is covered in the recent NASPGHAN position paper: North American Society for Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology, and Nutrition Position…

Employment While the headline numbers for the jobs report showed results that beat expectations, when you look closely at the report it shows a softening labor market which is exactly what the Fed wants to see. Nonfarm payrolls in the month of November showed a gain of 199,000 which topped the estimate of 190,000 and the unemployment rate fell to 3…

Annual Home Sales The higher interest rates have put a damper on home sales, which is no surprise. The seasonally adjusted annual sales came in at 3.8 million for October. Not only is that a decline of 4.1% from September, it is the lowest seasonally adjusted annual home sales since August 2010 which was over 13 years ago. As interest rates pull ba…

In this episode, hosts Drs. Peter Lu and Jennifer Lee talk to Dr. Muhammad Khan about the cutting edge of pediatric endoscopy. We discuss his career path, use of peroral endoscopic myotomy (POEM) for children with achalasia and gastroparesis, advances in bariatric endoscopy that may be coming our way, and finally what he sees in the future of pedia…

PPI More great news on the inflation front as the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 0.5% in the month of October, which was well below expectations for a 0.1% increase. This also marked the largest monthly decline since April 2020. Compared to last year, the index showed an increase of just 1.3% which was a nice decline from September’s reading of 2.…

In this episode, hosts Drs. Jennifer Lee and Jason Silverman talk to Dr. Norberto Rodriguez-Baez about Hepatitis B. We discuss diagnosis, treatment options, and the importance of vaccinations to prevent transmission of this virus. Dr. Rodriguez-Baez is a professor of pediatrics at University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center and hepatologist at …

PC Sales We have seen global shipments of PCs decline to 245 million this year, a drop of nearly 100 million from 2021 when global shipments reached 342 million. You may think that PCs are going to go the way of the dinosaur, but that is not the case. Personal computer companies are preparing new PCs that will begin arriving within the next few mon…

Employment While the employment numbers missed expectations, it is a big positive for interest rates as the labor market is slowing and should provide evidence for the Fed that their hiking cycle can end. The headline number showed nonfarm payrolls increased by just 150,000 in the month of October vs the expectation for an increase of 170,000. The …

In this episode, hosts Drs. Jennifer Lee and Jason Silverman debrief with Dr. Sandeep Gupta on his NASPGHAN Research Year in Review. Dr. Gupta is Professor of Pediatrics at the University of Alabama He is also the North American Editor and Chief for both JPGN and JPGN Reports. Learning Objectives: Review impactful clinical research papers in eosino…

Investing Volatility A recent client survey by Charles Schwab produced some viable insights during difficult times like this. Over the longer term 33% of investors attributed their greatest investing success to patience through volatility. It is hard to patient during the ups and downs, but the reality is when holding good quality investments, it h…

In this episode, hosts Drs. Jennifer Lee and Jason Silverman talk to Dr. Christophe Faure about tracheoesophageal fistula and esophageal atresia. This important congenital abnormality carries a host of potential future health implications that are important to understand and manage. Dr. Faure is a Professor of Pediatrics at Universite de Montreal a…

CPI I was somewhat disappointed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as I believed there would be a slower growth in the inflation rate. With that being said, I don’t believe the report is problematic. The headline number for September of 3.7% matched August’s rate and was only slightly ahead of the expectation of 3.6%. The core rate which excludes fo…

Jobs Report The September jobs report was released on Friday, October 6 and at first glance it was scary because it was so good. But then as the day moved on the report was analyzed further and positive information was found. What was scary about the report was 336,000 jobs created, twice as much as expected. This caused concern that there would be…

We kick off Season 5 (!) of our little podcast with another host episode! Hosts Drs. Temara Hajjat, Jennifer Lee, Peter Lu, and Jason Silverman talk about podcast updates, our new merch store, and answer your questions from #NASPGHAN23 in sunny San Diego. And a huge thank you to all of our guests, our producer Corey, and NASPGHAN -- but most of all…

Food Stocks I enjoy food quite a bit, but looking at food stocks I’m beginning to think I like them better. Food companies in 2023 are down between 15 to 25%, and these are levels that some have not seen in 10 years or longer. You know a lot of their names like Kellogg and Campbell Soup. They are not as exciting as tech companies, which have really…

US Advantages I always enjoy seeing advantages of the United States over China. In the recent book “Chip War” written by Chris Miller he writes that across the entire semiconductor supply chain, including chip design, intellectual property, tools, fabrication and other steps, the Chinese only has a 6% market share. That compares to 39% for the US, …

In our FIRST collaboration with the Nutrition Pearls podcast from the Council for Pediatric Nutrition Professionals (CPNP), hosts Dr. Peter Lu and dietitian Jennifer Smith talk to our guests Dr. Bruno Chumpitazi and dietitian Kirsten Jones about dietary treatment of children with irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) -- specifically about using the low-FO…

UAW Strike Based on recent readings, it looks like the UAW will strike against the auto makers. I’m certain the auto makers will need to increase pay for the auto workers, but this could perhaps cause them to raise the prices of their cars to cover the increase in labor costs. I hope the head of the union and union workers read the following. It no…

Drs. Jennifer Lee and Temara Hajjat talked to Dr. Mercedes Martinez, a Professor of Pediatrics and Pediatric Gastroenterologist and Transplant Hepatologist from Columbia University, about diagnosing and managing pediatric patients with portal hypertension and esophageal varices. Learning Objectives: Learn the clinical and diagnostic signs of portal…

Jobs Report The Jobs Report reaffirmed exactly what the Fed should be looking for and that is a softening labor market. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 187,000 in the month of August. This beat expectations of 170,000, but the previous two months were revised lower by a total of 110,000 payrolls. This would put the three-month average at around 150,0…